08北京的夏天注定hot

08北京的夏天注定hot，至少在费用上。。。 最便宜的如家最大涨幅743% 截至08年2月28日，269元 不含早，早餐10元 3月1日－7月23日，1999元 不含早，早餐40元 7月24日－8月4日，1399元 不含早 早餐40元/人 8月5日－8月25日，1999元 8月26日－8月31日，1399元 9月1日－12月31日，269元 不含早 中档的中服，最大涨幅925％ 截至08年5月31日，398元 含早 6月1日－9月15日，3200元 另收15％服务费，含早 9月16日－12月31日，500元 酒店升级，含早 5星级的暂时没查到，估计10倍以上的涨幅。 结论，去北京看奥运的话要么住亲戚朋友家里，要么还是住中高档酒店，反正钱也要花，就当享受了。如家这种经济酒店没必要，不值这个价，而且有段时间会贵过中档酒店。

清澈的眼睛

最看不惯瞧不起我们的工人、农民、少数民族的人。

说我们的人民愚昧、素质低，以为自己生来高人一等的人都TM操蛋，典型的装B。如果不是因为人为的障碍，社会的不公平，谁高谁低还说不定呢。

对我来说，很多勤劳、善良的贫苦之人有最清澈的眼睛，某些所谓的高等人士不过是些蒙蔽心灵和眼睛的人。

all photos are from web.

荷

CD will be meomeries

I have not too many CDs, less than 100. I am thinking to collect them as the old things, but will not buying more, even if there are new versions like SACD or HDCD. It's simply not the right way to listen to music from CD in this era.

What I will buy is a music player with big storage to put all my media in it, and can edit playlists to playback whatever I want it to play, it can be a standalone mini machine or has a HDMI sort of connection to amplifyer.

A HTPC or Apple Tv, Mini Mac can do such things. But they are still a bit complicated if I just want to listen to music quickly as a traditional CD player do. They are more suitable to play high def. videos as a AV system. I still want a single and easy to use music player. Other functions such as Internet media capability, wireless speakers to share music in other rooms, Iphone/Ipod connections will be a plus.

Such players are already out there by companies such as Phillips. The music industry is already changed significantly for yrs, some companies are introducing new generations of music players to meet changing needs of consumers and record business. Currently they are not perfect, they are still too thick, storage is just 40GB, and MP3 quality is only up to 160kps, etc.

I am not replacing my JVC EX-A10 in short time, I still listen to CD at home and listen to Iphone/Ipod outside.

There are always newest electronics available every couple of months. I find that to get 100% out of each machine is far more interesting than constantly chasing the new ones. I like to buy products that work good and with style (not neccessary luxiuries), when I fully understand it and make it do the work, it's a lot of fun. Perhaps in the two or three years, the value of CDs is for memory, just like the old big balck long-playing record. (Right, many DJs also like the scratching value of LPs).

The dream system?

选择

所谓选择，不过是因为类似的东西太多。如果有一个最好的，那就简单了。

物、事、人，莫不如此。

彩云之南

暂时逃离钢筋森林， 让身心游走在彩云之南， 空灵的高原躺在鲜活的阳光下， 心开始被渐渐点亮。 消失的地平线上， 那是永远的香格里拉。。。

Investment strategy

Q3 of 07 is begining of a new stage of China's bullish stock market. A large percentage of personal investors began to lose money and 90% of mutual funds did not outperform the index in Q3. I selected some stocks in July, util Sep, I earned over 80% profit, beat the index growth at same period, which is 22%.

Maybe I was lucky, but I think there are two things for sure, firstly, safety is top priority, lose money is inevitable in the market, but always earn more than lose. Second, China's stock market is far from mature and so dynamic, so it is very important to review the influencing factors, market trend periodically and formulate the most effective strategy for each stage.

Overall objective: at least beat inflation over time and try to outperform average market performance. (means at least over 10% return annually). I follow the below strategies currently.

1. Never invest in a zero-sum market, such as gambling, it is a mathematical certainty that you will go broke. Most markets are positive-sum game including the stock market. Investment is to rent capital to market who can make more effective use of it, this adds more value to excess capital and can help beating the inflation over time. 2. Reading about a 'hot stock' in Wall Street analyst's buy recommedation won't bring above average return on the stock. Because everyone else has access to the same information. This is the essence of the efficiency markets theory. The effecient market theory says that asset prices already reflect all available information. According to Morningstar, only 30% of actively managed funds have performed better than the S&P 500 over the past five years, and only 15% of such funds have done so over the past two decades. The simple index fund, our morden equivalent of a monkey throwing a towel at the stock page, did better. And behavioral economics, did not beat the traditional effecient market theory. 3. By point 2, I did not mean reviewing company fundamentals useless. In fact, not every one in market is so effective or the big fishes in market is doing something else to maximize the utilization of capital, I am competiting with them, and moreover, only understand the true value of the company, I won't buy any stock not worth its value. Buy low, sell high is the principle everybody knows, thus I need to find out what's undervalued (it's better that WSJ analysts didn't promote it recently) and the efficiency markets theory will do the rest, the value will be capitalized sooner or later, as long as valuation model is correct and industry/company fundamentals remain strong, the only risk is time cost of capital might be very high. 4. After picking stocks, at least reviewing its quarterly report. I once made a mistake, I picked two stocks and at the begining made good profit, then the price went to the downward trend and finally I lost all the profit and had to sold them out. The lesson is to track the fundamentally on timely basis so don't miss critical information so as to make more informed investment desicion. All information I can get is public, but as said ealier, it is possible to outperform institutional investors and ordinary investors. Comparably, insitituonal investors move slower than me, I react more responsively to market change. Compare to personal investors, because the mass population is in market now, I certainly make more rational decisions than many people. 5. Take risks, earn reward. It's not a shame the stock I pick actually fall, because it's the thing I can't predict matter. As stock prices settle at a fair price given everything that we know or can reasonably predict, prices will rise or fall in the future only in response to unanticipated events-things that we cannot know in the present.Nothing is impossible in the market, remember the magic words: Enron, Enron, Enron. I don't keep money in stock all the time, grasp limited opportunities in each year is enough to reach my objective. 6. Save, invest, repeat. The gain from market is the rent I can command from financial market. Thus, if I have diversified portfolio (significantly lower the risk of serious losses without lowering the expected return) and invest for the long turn (I am certainly sure stocks is much higher in 25 yrs time than it is today, day trading incurs all the costs of trading without any of the benefits that come from holding equities for the long run), I will make profit. Furthermore, It is not realistic to expect the market always being a crazy bull, consistently beat the index is already a mirable. Remember Buffet, his annual average return is about 20%, after lasting for several decades, he is the richest guy in the world. There is no need to be impatient, what matters is to find out the best investment strategy working for myself and stick to it. I expect the rest of 07 will be a fluatuating market, returns will not jusify risks. But I am optimistic about 08, there should be a significant opportunity before Olympics ends. Just watch it closely and looking for best timing to enter again.